This bang-up-to date study probably ranks as the most comprehensive statistical study on west Europe’s dominating diesel car market. Above all, the conditions of demand have changed almost beyond recognition during these past 12 months, and in consequence have impacted a great deal on the diesel market’s underlying health. The rise-and-rise of fuel-economical diesel powered cars, following a decade of unbroken growth, culminated last year when West Europe’s diesel car share zoomed to a new historic high of 53.3 per cent. The market, in so doing, has reached a new crossroads, for in 2007 and 2006 traditional petrol powered cars were outsold for the first time by oilburning cars. Has Europe’s diesel demand peaked? Since then however, the breakneck expansionary pace of hot earlier diesel car sales growth has slowed to little more than a crawl, pulled back mainly by a steep and disproportional rise in the price of diesel fuel. What’s more, major markets like Germany and Italy saw the first signs of a notable decline in diesel popularity. The sudden decline in diesel demand in these countries, naturally slowing overall European diesel demand, has tempted some prognosticators to the view that in Europe diesel demand has peaked, and from now on petrol powered cars will stage a steady comeback. AID’s long-time expert on the underlying developments in Europe’s long-buzzing diesel car scene, after studying the underlying health of the region’s diesel car market under a microscope, see sufficient reason to issue Europe’s diesel car market with a clean bill of health. The only reservation, after a comparatively brief lull, the sector will resume the long term growth curve, albeit at a more moderate rate. Extensive commentary and analysis Reasons behind the sudden slowing in Europe’s diesel car market, and in particular the outwardly perplexing and steeply contrasting diesel car sales fortunes in Europe’s various markets. A gradual and notable decline in some major diesel markets contrasts with an actual acceleration in others. AID investigates the reasons for these opposing fortunes. Opportunities and threats Much can go wrong with rosy diesel scenarios. ‘Cost benefit analysis’ and the vital issue of rocketing diesel fuel prices together with NEW discriminatory vehicle taxes specifically aimed against fuel-guzzling cars are examined. Past, present and future to 2013 Twenty five years of diesel passenger car sales trends (sales volumes and percentage share of total car market) for western Europe as well as each of 15 individual markets. Fuel pump-price movements - petrol versus diesel. Twenty five years history for each European market. Also included: Latest state of play in 2008 diesel market. Key data, analysis and
projections: Past, present and
future: i)
Introduction ii)
Management Summary iii)
Market Overview iv)
Reasons behind spectacular rebound of Europe's diesel car market. v)
Technology - Exhaust emissions - Cost hurdles Common rail and ‘Pumpe Düse’ unit injection pump - particulate
filters (coated v. uncoated) with/without fuel additive - Selective Catalytic
Reduction (SCR) - Piezo injectors - twin stage turbos - diesel fuel quality,
sulphur levels, NOx emissions - NOx filters. Some diesel carmakers face major
hurdles in meeting Euro-5 exhaust emission standards for diesels in Europe and
US. What are the options and who is doing what? Will imminent switch to
direct-injection (FSI) petrol engines, smaller capacity petrol turbos and petrol
electric hybrids pose a threat to the future prosperity of the diesel car
market? Key issue of fuel price differentials, impact of taxation as
well as diesel price premium still demanded by manufacturers. What’s in store
for the future? The big switch to ultra-green diesels is likely to impact on
consumer choice. Big changes and decisions are expected, providing PR and cost
headaches for some and untold opportunities for others. A round-up of what’s
ahead on the particle, NOx and SCR filter front is included. Much can go wrong with rosy diesel scenarios. ‘Cost benefit
analysis’ and the vital issue of discriminatory vehicle taxes and ultra-tough
exhaust emissions specifically aimed against diesel cars are examined. Key data
1) Twenty
five years of diesel passenger car sales trends Diesel sales volumes and percentage share of total car market
for Western Europe as well as each of 15 individual markets.
2) Fuel
pump-price movements - petrol versus diesel Up to ten years history for most West European markets, plus
latest 2008 picture. 3) More
than half-a-decade of historical diesel car sales (2002-2007) for Europe and
each of 15 markets: 3.1 Diesel volume, share and penetration analysis. 3.2 Sector analysis
and sector forecast (Basic, Small, Lower-medium,
Upper-medium, Near-executive, Executive, Luxury, People-carriers and 4WD
Sports-utilities). 3.3) Analysis by manufacturer group and
marque. 3.4) Model range (i.e VW Golf/Bora, Peugeot 207, etc). 4) More
than half-a-decade of historical diesel car production (2002-2007) in Western
Europe 4.1 Diesel volume plus share of total car production.
4.2 By marque and manufacturer group. 4.3 By model range. 5)
Forecast annual diesel passenger car sales to 2013 plus share of total passenger
car market 5.1 Total West European diesel volume and penetration. 5.1.1 By sector (Basic, Small, Lower-medium etc). 5.2 By market for each and every one of 15 markets. 5.3 By sector for each and every one of 15 markets.
"If the underlying health and politically sensitive future
direction of the long-expanding and commercially |
