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 We have heard in recent days a steady drumbeat of information from the US that with the incoming Trump administration change will be the new watchword. In particular, with a new emphasis on ‘US First’, various earlier struck deals concerning US relations with other countries and associated trade deals may no longer be worth the paper they are written on. But there may be more. The way things stand today, CAFE, the benchmark for current and future vehicle fuel-economy in the US, may be relaxed. That’s chiefly because they are seen by some as too challenging for America’s autoindustry. Now, while driving some environmentalists to despair, that’s not as far-fetched as some might believe. On this issue, Trump has a point.
What is the point of a setting a goal if by common consent there is no realistic chance of achieving it within a tight timeframe?
While the jury remains out on the short-term achievability of future CAFE targets, in EU Europe this vexed issue is a great
deal clearer.
Today’s cast in stone EU ruling, stipulating a 95g/km fleet average CO2 car emission target by 2021, is just one of those goals.
It’s achievable, but given today’s realistic world as we face it, not within the next five years.
We don’t live in a perfect world.
In and outside Europe’s autoindustry, today’s consensus is that Zero emission electric cars need to play a vital part to cross the 95g/km hurdle.
But there is more.
To get there also calls for a large sales share of more fuel-economical diesels and a notably higher sales share for fuel sipping small cars.
Even a casual glance at latest car buying trends in Europe reveals a contrasting picture.
Demand for electric cars is going nowhere in particular.
That’s chiefly because these vehicles are still too expensive and still fall short on driving range and a grossly underdeveloped electric car infrastructure.
Experts believe that by 2025 or 2030 at the latest, most of these blatant shortcomings can be a thing of the past.
Fast forward just five years from now.
Realistic chances are that electric cars, a vital part in the achievement of the 95g/km fleet average
CO2 level by 2021, in terms of sales mix, will be nowhere near these required levels.
Also, reality is that West Europe’s electric car sales have now fallen in five out of the past six months, including a 16.9 per cent plunge this October.
Diesels, yet another vital ingredient towards achieving these set 95g/km EU goals, are on the decline.
Given today’s consumer sentiment towards blackend diesels, for today’s unloved diesels, the writing is already on the wall.
Their West European sales share – still around 50 per cent – could conceivably plummet between now and 2021.
The consequence is higher, rather than lower average vehicle consumption in the years ahead. Finally, the trend towards smaller and more fuel economical cars.
Today, on both sides of the big pond, the market is moving inexorably into the exact opposite direction.
The sales share of small cars is shrinking and the share going to larger cars, and generally higher
CO2-emitting SUV-Crossovers in particular, is not only rising, it is rising fast.
Before long these vehicles will have captured a third of West European new car sales.
With few notable exceptions, the betting has to be that for an already stressed-out auto industry this 95g/km target simply cannot be met by 2021.
Reality check: these crucial issues, given the potential of sky-high penalties from 2021 onwards, could soon develop a life of their own.
With justification, it’s time to renegotiate, with the objective to delay implementation of these unrealistic EU goals until 2025.
This way, given today’s real-world technological developments, these goals may be met, but without blood, sweat and
tears 
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