ISSUE 0819 Published 16-October-2008
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AUTOINDUSTRY strategists, shocked by the severity of tremors from today’s global financial crisis, now predict privately that the toxic fallout from the forever tightening crisis, chiefly far lower than earlier feared car sales in Europe, could still be felt in 2010 and beyond. Nevertheless, dazed by today’s headline dominating events and fearful of the inevitable fallout spreading further into near empty dealer showrooms, carmakers now appear reluctant to issue a sales forecast for this and next year....more

      
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Subaru’s first-ever diesel, at a stroke, removes a long standing barrier to substantial future European vehicle sales expansion. With its petrol-only range, Subaru was fighting for crumbs in less than a quarter of last year’s Upper-Medium car market ....more   

UNITED KINGDOM - Meltdown
August UK car sales plunge 21.2%   

Far from the expected stutter that is now afflicting even Toyota and some of the industry’s true aristocratic old guard, the powerful motor at the heart of upwardly mobile Volkswagen Group is still running smoothly. Thanks at least partly to its continued upbeat showing, the group also nudged ahead of Toyota in terms of market capitalisation. Its net worth, propelled along by the dizzying rally of its shares, shot up October 8th to the stratospheric heights of €94.3bn. ....more

According to GM supplied figures nine months light vehicle sales in Europe remained largely stuck at 17.35m units. While that is interesting to market watchers, there is perhaps one issue that is easily overlooked. What these GM global light vehicle sales figures are saying is that this year’s European light vehicle market is significantly larger than the US.....more

STOCK MARKET REVIEW - Moment of truth
Credit crisis stirs up rumour mill as big three totter

General Motors is going bankrupt. General Motors will merge with Chrysler, or perhaps Ford, depending on which news bulletin you last listened too. The US
industry is on the verge of collapse; that was no rumour, that was the Chrysler CEO speaking. ...more

As much of Europe appears to be sliding further towards recession, the autoindustry’s current downturn is potentially threatening to turn into a full
blown car sales slump, strongly echoing the negative sentiments seen of late in the slump-struck US, where September sales tumbled by 26.6 per cent ....more

ISSUE 0818 Published 02-October-2008
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SOME of the world’s leading carmakers, still dominating China’s long-spiralling car market, were treated to yet another severe jolt last August when China’s new car sales fell for the first time this year. August’s double-digit dive in new car sales couldn’t fail but set alarm bells ringing, and shocked autoindustry executives, removing their rose-tinted spectacles, are now discovering to their horror how much greyer China’s skies suddenly look.
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On the face of it, Škoda launching its first true executive car just as banks are falling like ninepins and threatening to trash the world’s economies might seem like less than perfect timing, given that large or even moderately large cars are one of the first luxuries to go by the board when the bonuses dry up. ....more

WESTERN EUROPE - "Off Road" - Can Land Rover survive SUV sales famine?
Land Rover, facing a dying SUV market, could crash & burn   

Amazing as it might seem, and with dark and heavy storm clouds descending over most European economies, Europe’s production of trucks in the over 6t GVW weight category is still heading for an all-time record. However, the upbeat message of the figures was overshadowed by unmistakeable signs of a rapidly approaching downturn in West and even Central and Eastern Europe ....more

The new cars being unveiled to the public at this week’s Paris Car Show will be smaller and greener than ever before, with the notable exception of the Ferrari California, but the mainstream industry is on the verge of a financial crisis. Expect to see many small technology improvements for fuel efficiency like smaller engines with turbo-chargers, and more stop-start....more

STOCK MARKET REVIEW - Bavarian Financial squeeze
BMW facing both ways; will it go for sales or profits?

BMW may be ready to accept that its holy Grail of ever rising sales may not be compatible with decent profit margins in today’s torrid market conditions, although the company was putting out conflicting signals ...more

When the auto industry’s grey-faced senior executives gather this week for the grand opening of the prestigious French Motor Show in Paris, there is one issue on which they are likely to speak with one voice: Europe’s fast deteriorating car market has clearly reached a crossroads and now appears in the throes of a rapid and potentially lasting and fundamental transformation ....more

ISSUE 0817 Published 17-September-2008
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EUROPE’s autoindustry is now bracing itself for a potentially steep downturn during the remaining months of this year after new figures showed a significantly sharper than feared 16.5 per cent sales plunge during the traditional holiday month of August, thus widening West Europe’s sales deficit after eight months to a steeper than feared 4.4 per cent - little short of twice the sales slippage at the halfway stage ....more

      
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Described predictably as the "Best Golf of all times" by its creators Volkswagen, with its 6th generation Golf, Europe’s biggest carmaker is aiming not only at unchanged or even higher annual sales, but thanks to more intelligent cost-effective design and faster unit production the carmaker also hopes to generate Golf’s first halfway decent unit profits ...more

Porsche, the auto industry’s most profitable carmaker, is well on the way of making good its earlier undertaking to cut the fuel-economy of its iconic sports cars by an outwardly impressive 25 per cent by 2012 ...more

WESTERN EUROPE - Contagion spreading fast
Fallout from economic turmoil now affects most of Europe   

In Reykjavik, Iceland, VW CEO Martin Winterkorn reiterated his view that the company would meet its targets for 2008 sales, revenues and profits to be better than 2007’s which surprised some investors who were preparing for a profit warning as European sales dived. ....more

The fallout from the economic turmoil in much of Europe has suddenly dealt a severe blow to most autoindustry members, and when judged purely from August’s fast ebbing sales tide, even the biggest and strongest members suffered their own fair share of the bloodletting ....more

STOCK MARKET REVIEW - Gloomy Horizon
Minuses outweigh plusses as European 2008/09 forecasts are slashed 

There are some powerful positive factors, just too many negatives with 60% of sales on tick, credit crunch now a major handicap - Profits under threat from weakening sales, poorer mix. Before you run away with the idea that all the news about the European car industry is bad, Morgan Stanley has provided its clients with a handy check list of pluses, as well as minuses. ...more

Apart from its clearly classier new interior and better fitting dress, styled much in the manner of earlier models, from a distance almost a trainspotter’s eye for detail is required to instantly distinguish it from its predecessor ....more

ISSUE 0816 Published 02-September-2008
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IF one issue has become clear