| € |
EDITORIAL
Volvo’s Dongfeng truck
JV, Trojan horse, a springboard or a curse?
AID Newsletter
Editorial
1302
from Peter Schmidt -
February 05th 2013
Published:
Tue,
05th February 2013
13:14:10
GMT

Unlike
China’s huge car market, which remains dominated not
only by western designs, but also by leading Western
carmakers like Volkswagen Group, GM or Hyundai-Kia,
China’s truck market has remained almost entirely a
domestic affair.
China’s significance is underlined by the fact that
its heavy truck market is now more than twice the size
of West European and US sales put together.
So given that heavy truck demand in these two mature
regions is already at or near saturation, it comes as
no surprise that of late Western truck makers’ eyes
were firmly focused on the untold opportunities to be
had in China’s heavy truck market.
Little wonder then that last week Sweden’s Volvo said
it had signed a JV agreement with China’s Dongfeng for
a 45 per cent stake in Dongfeng’s commercial vehicle
operation.
A great deal can be read into that deal.
On balance, and apart from the fact that that move has
probably crowned Volvo as the world’s leading heavy
truck maker, bringing with it untold future economy of
scale benefits for both partners, critics also fear
that potentially Volvo stands to lose more than it can
gain.
Unsurprisingly, siren warnings suggest that Dongfeng’s
truck arm will evidently milk its new partner for
everything it’s got.
That’s chiefly Volvo truck’s cutting-edge
technological know-how, comprising cab, chassis,
engine, gearbox and safety technology, to name but a
few key areas.
Some will go further, saying that ultimately Volvo’s
exemplary global truck sales and service network - the
absolute key for entry into any sophisticated truck
market - could be turned into a fast-track route to
both sell and service ‘cheap’ Chinese trucks in
leading western markets.
In short, the danger is that Volvo’s likely
technology and truck platform sharing, supported for
good measure by Volvo’s five-star dealer and service
network, may cannibalise future sales of Volvo’s own
trucks in many, if not all its established main
markets.
No doubt, these fears and risks are real. Particularly
if, as China’s Geely has already illustrated with its
acquisition of the Volvo car brand, Dongfeng will take
the helm after first swallowing Volvo’s truck brands
during future years.
None of that is far-fetched in the least.
However, if history is any guide, these same arguments
and reservations were no doubt raised following the
slam-bang pace of joint ventures between western
carmakers and their know-how seeking Chinese partners.
In the event, following a great deal of initial
heart-searching at Volkswagen Group, which was first
to set up shop in China with local Chinese partners,
Volkswagen Group’s commercial fortunes have been
lifted into new stratospheric heights, thanks in large
measure to their mutually beneficial Joint Ventures
with their Chinese partners.
In effect, and apart from untold volume sales gains,
their joint ventures in China have proved most
rewarding in almost every sense.
A case in point, earlier last year Bernstein Research
alleged VW was using massive profits from its still
highly profitable China business to subsidise a price
war to relentlessly build market share at the expense
of its weak competitors in Europe.
More of this same happy tale, China is thought to
have generated about 30 per cent of Audi’s profit in
2010, and almost half of BMW’s in 2011.
Given their markedly richer recent sales mix in China,
the profit story for last year was probably better.
On balance, and notwithstanding the undeniable risks,
Volvo trucks’ bigwigs were right to seek out and sign
up a commercial vehicle based JV deal with Dongfeng.
What counts is making acceptable future profits and if
any major JV deal promises to deliver that, decision
makers should go for it and grab it.
If, on the other hand, part of the group cannot do
that, it should be disposed of.
That’s exactly what Volvo’s top decision makers did
back in early 1999 when Volvo’s car arm was offloaded
to Ford for $6.45bn. Leif Johansson, Volvo Group’s
chief executive at the time, was then reported as
saying that Volvo’s car offshoot was sold because it
lacked increasingly vital critical mass, sufficiently
high profit margins and resources to remain
competitive in the long term.
The Dongfeng tie-up, on all these counts, potentially
fits Volvo Trucks’ business case in almost every
sense.
But Volvo should wise up to the life-preserving
necessity to keep a close eye on its Chinese partner’s
manoeuvring at all times.
To continue reading this article, please register
for a free sample without obligation...
Please note that
eagleAID.com is a subscriber-only site, and as such it can
only be viewed by subscribers to the newsletter.
|